An Integrated Simulation and Optimization Modeling Approach for Environmental Planning in New Urban Areas
Abstract: The planning and construction of new urban areas is an important way to further improve the level of urbanization and socio-economic development in China. In order to effectively alleviate the contradictions of the urban socio-economic development and resources and environment, reduce pollution at the source, and decrease the environmental risks, it is necessary to carry out preventive study in the new urban areas. In this paper, based on the holistic, integrated and dynamic characteristics of new urban areas, we used the uncertainty-based scenario optimization method, combined with the preferential decision-making of the industrial development, to stimulate the areas’ socio-economic and environmental system. Four steps were involved in the proposed modeling framework, including (a) systematic response modeling; (b) scenarios analysis and evaluation; (c) optimal model development; and (d) final decision schemes determination. Three scenarios were designed according to the socio-economic development, emissions of major pollutants and the main constraint resources consumption. A case study in Zhengzhou New District, Henan Province was carried out in this paper and optimized socio-economic development scheme was proposed. The model results showed that the COD discharge will increase from 1963 t/a in 2008 to 33806t/a in 2020.
Key words: Social economy and environment system; Scenario; Optimization; Preferential decision-making; Zhengzhou New District